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Forex Trading and Futures – USD Down vs EUR & JPY – Silver and Gold Prices Higher Crude Oil Lower
Submitted by Tom Madison on January 13, 2012 - 3:41am.
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(Best Syndication News) The U.S. and Canadian dollars fell broadly against other world currencies while gold and silver prices climbed higher on an advancing euro (see forex and futures charts below).
World Economic News
Some economists had expected the European Central Bank (ECB) to lower their interest rates. Although there are still sovereign debt concerns and some signs of a recession in Europe, the central bank will hold their main refinancing operations, marginal lending facility, and deposit facility rates at 1.00 percent, 1.75 percent, and 0.25 percent respectively.
Back on November 3rd, the ECB lowered their rate 25 basis points. “At present, a number of factors seem to be dampening the underlying growth momentum in the euro area,” Mario Draghi, President of the ECB said Thursday. However Draghi said that some recent survey indicators show “tentative signs of a stabilization in activity at low levels.”
The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) estimates that the UK GDP increased 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter ending in December 2011.
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) estimates that the Japanese M3 money supply increased 2.6 percent in December 2011 from December 2010. The M2 money supply increased 3.1 percent and the broadest liquidity index increased 0.4 percent.
The U.S. Labor Department reported that there were 399,000 initial claims for the week ending January 7th. That is up 24,000 from the previous week and higher than the consensus estimate of 375,000.
The Commerce Department said that retail sales for December were $400.6 billion. That is an increased of 0.1 percent from November and a 6.5 percent increase from December 2010. If auto sales are included, retail sales were down 0.2 percent.
The Census Bureau estimates that total sales for November were $1.221 trillion, up 0.3 percent from October (seasonally adjusted). Inventories were estimated to be $1.550 trillion. “The total business inventories/sales ratio based on seasonally adjusted data at the end of November was 1.27,” the Bureau said in their statement.
Precious Metals
February gold on the COMEX added $8.10 (+0.49%) to $1,647.70 a troy ounce (see the survey #2 settle price chart below).
Silver for March delivery gained 23 cents (+0.78%) to $30.12 per ounce. The ratio between gold and silver tightened to 54.7.
Platinum added $2.40 (+0.16%) to $1,499.00 per troy ounce. The difference between platinum and gold was $148.7.
Palladium was lower but copper was higher.
Aluminum on the London Metal Exchange (LME) climbed $5.50 (+0.26%) to $2,160 a ton.
Metals were higher on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM). Gold added 22 yen (+0.54%) to ¥4,075 per gram. See the TOCOM chart below for our exclusive dollar conversions.
Energy Prices
The European Union (EU) delayed their decision to place an embargo on Iranian oil Thursday. This relieved some of the upward pressure on Brent crude and WTI. The EU is looking at contracts between Iran and some EU companies for the delivery of oil. The contracts are being weighed in their decision to ban oil from Iran.
Brent Crude oil futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) fell 49 cents (-0.43%) to $112.24 a barrel. Light sweet crude oil (WTI) on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) settled down $1.77 (-1.75%) to $99.10 a barrel. The difference between the two benchmarks expanded to $13.14.
Natural gas, heating oil and coal were all lower.
Currency Exchange Rates
The U.S. Dollar (USD) declined against all other major currencies with the exception of the Canadian dollar (CAD) Thursday (see the cross charts below). The euro (EUR) gained against all major currencies with the exception of the Swiss franc (CHF).
The USD declined 0.17 percent vs the Australian dollar (AUD), 0.08 percent vs the Japanese yen (JPY), and 0.14 percent vs the British pound sterling (GBP); however the USD gained 0.03 percent vs the CAD (see the average dollar chart below).
The greenback turned around against nearly all currencies later in the day (see intraday chart below). The USD/JPY hit 76.8, the EUR/USD hit 1.2819, the GBP/USD hit 1.5337, the CAD/USD hit 1.0191, the USD/HKD hit 7.7681, and the AUD/USD hit 1.0311.
By: Tom Madison
Business Reporter
TOCOM Chart and our exclusive dollar conversions:
| 1/12/2012 | Tokyo Commodities Exchange | One-Day | One-Day | Five-Day | 30-Day | 100-Day | |
| Yen * | Commodity | Dollars | ¥ Change | % Change | % Change | % Change | % Change |
| 4,075 | Gold (standard) | $1,644.42 | 22 | 0.54% | 1.83% | -5.22% | -11.42% |
| 73.8 | Silver | $29.74 | 0 | 0.27% | 2.37% | -7.66% | -27.23% |
| 3,706 | Platinum (standard) | $1,495.11 | 56 | 1.54% | 4.47% | -4.96% | -19.78% |
| 1,586 | Palladium | $648.22 | 22 | 1.39% | 0.25% | 9.35% | -14.65% |
| 65,480 | Gasoline | $3.20 | -420 | -0.64% | 0.34% | 5.01% | 11.45% |
| 52,170 | Crude oil | $107.72 | -340 | -0.65% | 0.25% | 3.03% | 7.58% |
| 279.1 | Rubber | $1.65 | 6 | 2.24% | 6.69% | 2.91% | -20.83% |
| 55.22 | Ratio Gold/Silver | 0 | 0.27% | -0.53% | 2.64% | 21.72% | |
| * ¥ / gram kiloliter and kilogram PST - conversions to $ / ounce barrel or gallon | |||||||
Survey #2 Settle Price Chart:
| Thursday | Survey # 2 (BSNCOM2) | One-Day | One-Day | 1 Week | 30-Day | 100-Day |
| 1/12/2012 | Energy and Metal Settle | $ Change | % Change | % Change | % Change | % Change |
| 2160.00 | Aluminum 3-mo LME | 5.50 | 0.26% | 6.51% | 7.73% | -10.17% |
| 112.24 | Brent crude (not settled) | -0.49 | -0.43% | -0.44% | 1.28% | 3.33% |
| 63.57 | Coal | -1.53 | -2.35% | -7.53% | -7.60% | -16.72% |
| 3.65 | Copper HG | 0.10 | 2.90% | 6.49% | 8.09% | -8.40% |
| 99.10 | Crude oil (WTI) | -1.77 | -1.75% | -2.66% | -0.69% | 20.47% |
| 2.15 | Ethanol ZE CBOT | -0.11 | -4.98% | -1.42% | -13.32% | -23.99% |
| 1647.70 | Gold GC | 8.10 | 0.49% | 1.70% | -3.83% | -11.04% |
| 3.05 | Heating Oil (HO) | -0.01 | -0.34% | 0.50% | 1.09% | 5.15% |
| 2.70 | Natural gas NG HH | -0.08 | -2.78% | -9.50% | -25.76% | -31.55% |
| 640.70 | Palladium PA | -4.40 | -0.68% | -0.49% | 10.13% | -14.44% |
| 1499.00 | Platinum PL | 2.40 | 0.16% | 5.97% | -2.71% | -20.05% |
| 2.73 | RB RBOB Gasoline | -0.03 | -1.16% | -0.19% | 7.54% | -3.87% |
| 30.12 | Silver SI | 0.23 | 0.78% | 2.83% | -5.43% | -29.01% |
| 733.00 | Steel Hot-Roll Coil | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.41% | 16.35% | 10.23% |
| 51.95 | UxC Uranium U3O8 | 0.00 | 0.00% | -0.57% | 0.39% | 4.00% |
| 1/12/2012 | Averages and Ratios | Change | One-Day | 1 Week | 30-Day | 100-Day |
| 349.4 | Average All | 0.17 | 0.05% | 2.17% | 0.99% | -11.33% |
| 645.5 | Metals Average | 1.07 | 0.17% | 2.91% | -1.27% | -15.29% |
| 40.8 | Energy Average | -0.57 | -1.39% | -2.95% | -1.90% | 2.08% |
| 54.7 | Ratio Gold/Silver Prices | -0.16 | -0.29% | -1.09% | 1.69% | 25.31% |
| -148.7 | Difference Plat-Gold | -5.70 | 3.99% | -27.68% | -13.90% | -755.07% |
| 1.10 | Ratio Plat/Gold | 0.00 | 0.33% | -4.03% | -1.16% | 11.27% |
| 1.1 | Ratio Brent / WTI Prices | 0.02 | 1.34% | 2.28% | 1.99% | -14.23% |
| $13.14 | Difference Brent - CL | 1.28 | 10.79% | 20.22% | 19.13% | -50.15% |
Average Dollar Rate Chart:
| Thursday | Average Surveys 1 - 3 | % Change Day | % Change Wk | % Ch 30-Day | Ch 100-Day |
| 1/12/2012 | Average 1US$ = Currency | Pos=$US Gain | Pos=$US Gain | Pos=$US Gain | Pos=$US Gain |
| 0.9693 | Average Against Aussie | -0.17% | -1.10% | -2.67% | 1.30% |
| 0.7798 | Average Against Euro € | -0.81% | -0.60% | 4.02% | 12.05% |
| 76.8245 | Average Against Yen ¥ | -0.08% | -0.09% | -1.49% | -0.02% |
| 0.6517 | Average Against Pound £ | -0.14% | 0.56% | 1.67% | 7.41% |
| 0.9443 | Average Against Franc | -0.89% | -0.97% | 2.69% | 19.88% |
| 1.0187 | Average Against Canadian | 0.03% | -1.04% | -1.27% | 2.98% |
| Average 1Currency = US$ | Pos=$US Loss | Pos=$US Loss | Pos=$US Loss | Pos=$US Loss | |
| 1.0317 | Average Against Aussie | 0.17% | 1.11% | 2.74% | -1.29% |
| 1.2823 | Average Against Euro | 0.82% | 0.61% | -3.87% | -10.75% |
| 0.0130 | Average Against Yen | 0.08% | 0.09% | 1.51% | 0.02% |
| 1.5344 | Average Against Pound | 0.14% | -0.56% | -1.65% | -6.90% |
| 1.0590 | Average Against Franc | 0.89% | 0.98% | -2.62% | -16.58% |
| 0.9816 | Average Against Canadian | -0.03% | 1.05% | 1.28% | -2.89% |
Intraday Chart:
| Green = $ UP | Intra-Day Trend | Green = $ UP | ||||
| Red = $ Down | 1/12/2012 | Survey 5A | Survey 5B | Survey 5C | Red = $ Down | |
| From Previous | Time PT | 12:00 AM | 6:00PM | 9:30PM | Intra-Day | Average |
| -0.18% | USD/JPY | 76.76 | 76.76 | 76.8 | 0.05% | 76.773 |
| 0.90% | EUR/USD | 1.283 | 1.283 | 1.2819 | -0.09% | 1.283 |
| 0.10% | GBP/USD | 1.5342 | 1.5342 | 1.5337 | -0.03% | 1.534 |
| 0.04% | CAD/USD | 1.0186 | 1.0186 | 1.0191 | 0.05% | 1.019 |
| -0.02% | USD/HKD | 7.7665 | 7.7665 | 7.7681 | 0.02% | 7.767 |
| 0.33% | AUD/USD | 1.0335 | 1.0335 | 1.0311 | -0.23% | 1.033 |
| 0.02% | USD/CNY | 6.3177 | 6.3177 | 6.3163 | -0.02% | 6.317 |
Cross Tables:
| Survey 1 | January 12 2012 6:00 PM | |||||||
| 1 HKD | 1 AUD | 1 CAD | 1 CHF | 1 GBP | 1 JPY | 1 EUR | 1 USD | |
| USD $ | 0.1287 | 1.0317 | 0.9818 | 1.059 | 1.5345 | 0.013 | 1.2824 | - |
| EUR € | 0.1004 | 0.8045 | 0.7656 | 0.8258 | 1.1966 | 0.0102 | - | 0.7798 |
| JPY ¥ | 9.8821 | 79.199 | 75.3674 | 81.2953 | 117.794 | - | 98.4448 | 76.7655 |
| GBP £ | 0.0839 | 0.6723 | 0.6398 | 0.6901 | - | 0.0085 | 0.8357 | 0.6517 |
| CHF franc | 0.1216 | 0.9742 | 0.9271 | - | 1.449 | 0.0123 | 1.211 | 0.9443 |
| CAD | 0.1311 | 1.0508 | - | 1.0787 | 1.5629 | 0.0133 | 1.3062 | 1.0186 |
| AUD | 0.1248 | - | 0.9516 | 1.0265 | 1.4873 | 0.0126 | 1.243 | 0.9693 |
| HKD | 8.0144 | 7.6267 | 8.2265 | 11.92 | 0.1012 | 9.962 | 7.7682 | |
One-Day Change:
| Pos Means Top Currency Gained | One Day Change | January 12 2012 6:00 PM | ||||||
| Survey 1 | 1 HKD | 1 AUD | 1 CAD | 1 CHF | 1 GBP | 1 JPY | 1 EUR | 1 USD |
| USD | 0.000% | 0.165% | -0.020% | 0.896% | 0.157% | 0.000% | 0.818% | |
| EUR € | -0.791% | -0.642% | -0.829% | 0.073% | -0.656% | 0.000% | -0.814% | |
| JPY ¥ | -0.153% | 0.015% | -0.170% | 0.743% | 0.001% | 0.667% | -0.150% | |
| GBP £ | -0.119% | 0.000% | -0.172% | 0.730% | 0.000% | 0.662% | -0.153% | |
| CHF | -0.816% | -0.724% | -0.909% | -0.733% | -0.806% | -0.074% | -0.882% | |
| CAD | 0.000% | 0.181% | 0.917% | 0.167% | 0.758% | 0.842% | 0.020% | |
| AUD $ | -0.160% | -0.189% | 0.736% | -0.013% | 0.000% | 0.648% | -0.165% | |
| HKD | 0.167% | -0.017% | 0.898% | 0.155% | 0.198% | 0.822% | 0.004% | |
30-Day Change:
| Pos Means Top Currency Gained | 30- Day Change | January 12 2012 6:00 PM | ||||||
| Survey 1 | 1 HKD | 1 AUD | 1 CAD | 1 CHF | 1 GBP | 1 JPY | 1 EUR | 1 USD |
| USD | 0.31% | 3.52% | 1.47% | -2.31% | -1.36% | 1.56% | -3.84% | |
| EUR | 4.37% | 7.65% | 5.51% | 1.59% | 2.58% | 6.25% | 3.99% | |
| JPY | -1.17% | 1.99% | -0.04% | -3.76% | -2.83% | -5.26% | -1.49% | |
| GBP | 1.70% | 4.95% | 2.86% | -0.96% | 3.66% | -2.51% | 1.38% | |
| CHF | 2.70% | 5.97% | 3.87% | 0.97% | 4.24% | -1.56% | 2.36% | |
| CAD | -1.13% | 2.02% | -3.71% | -2.79% | 0.00% | -5.22% | -1.44% | |
| AUD | -3.11% | -1.99% | -5.64% | -4.72% | -2.33% | -7.11% | -3.40% | |
| HKD | 3.19% | 1.14% | -2.62% | -1.68% | 1.20% | -4.15% | -0.32% | |
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