New Test Helps Determine the Risk of Death in the Next
Four Years - Dying within 4 years odds quiz for those over the age of 50
Dr. Sei Lee
A new test is available that may give those over the age of 50 odds of
dying within the next 4 years. The test considers 12 risk factors to
determine the participant’s risk.
The lower the test scores, the lower the odds of dying. A score of 5
points means your risk of dying in four years is 4%. A score of 14
points will make the risk rise to 64%. Just being a man will give you 2
points. You will get another 2 points for being diabetic or being a
smoker. If you are unable to walk two blocks without getting tired, you
will get another 2 points.
The older you are the more points you will get. Over the age of 60,
points will begin to accrue just because of your age. The researchers
warn, don’t try this test at home. They say a doctor can help you put
things into perspective.
The quiz was designed to give doctors and families a “firmer sense for
what the future may hold”, Lindsey Tanner reports in Forbes Magazine.
Dr. Sei Lee, a geriatrics researcher at the San Francisco Veterans
Affairs Medical Center, who helped develop it, said “It's a very natural
human question of, 'What's going to happen to me?' We also know that
doctors are very cautious about giving prognostic information because
they don't want to be wrong."
Of course the test is not foolproof. It does not consider family
history, and it is less “meaningful” the younger you are. But there are
a couple things you can do to improve your chances of living at any
age. If you quit smoking and begin an exercise regimen, you will
improve your odds for survival.
The test was based on data involving 11,701 Americans over 50 who took
part in a national health survey in 1998. The report appears in
Wednesday's Journal of the American Medical Association. MSN displays
the test here.
Keywords and misspellings: obesity over weight quiz
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